Mongolian Economy
After about a decade of positive economic growth, Mongolia's GDP will fall by a staggering 9.7 per cent this year (NSO Mongolia undated). The 2020 general election looms as populist policies continue to keep the country in a quadruple-century impasse. The ADB projected that Mongolia's economic growth would fall to 2.1% in 2020 in the first half of the decade, compared to 5.1% in 2015, before rising to 4.6% in 2021.
Fitch also projected that Mongolia would run a budget deficit of about 4% of GDP in 2020, compared with 4.5% of GDP in 2018, which is seen as a positive sign for the country's long-term fiscal stability. According to the IMF's updated forecast, GDP growth will rise by up to 8% this year before falling to 1.1% in 2020. In the first half of the decade, growth was expected to be moderate, with inflation falling by 5.6% by 2020 and 2.7% over the next three years. General government debt remains relatively high at 73% but is expected to fall only slightly to 71% after 2020 (IMF forecast, 14 April 2020).
Mongolia is heading for parliamentary elections in June 2020 but is one of thirty countries that have decided not to postpone their elections, with more than 60% of all countries opting for postponement (IMF forecast, April 14, 2020). The parliamentary elections have been postponed for the first time in the country's history due to a lack of funding and political instability.
After the first outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan, Mongolia became the second country to close its border with China and began taking precautions in January. The Mongolian government announced that it would close the border with China on January 27, after the first case in China was announced on December 31, 2019. Chinese authorities closed off the border with Russia after the outbreak, and Mongolia closed its borders with Russia on February 1, 2020. Mongolia has since closed all its borders with the Republic of Mongolia and closed off all but the northernmost part of its border, Tibet, to the south, while the Chinese authorities have sealed off the southernmost part of the border.
In the first half of 2020, the amount of coal exported from Mongolia to China fell to almost half the level of the previous year, and China's coal imports rose as fuel prices fell. However, imports to Mongolia will fall in the second half due to the falling fuel price and the fall in coal prices in China. The loss of life caused by coal mining accidents in Mongolia in 2015 and 2016 will be included in the total death toll from January 2020. This will lead to an increase in deaths in the Mongolian mining industry in 2020 and beyond, according to the report.
COVID-19 in Mongolia
To combat COVID-19, Mongolia has for the first time introduced strict nationwide barriers to stem the spread of the virus. In March, it was reported that an imported case of French nationals entering from abroad and a case in Mongolia had been reported. Mongolia took early action against imported cases following the notification of an outbreak in China and introduced restrictions on the entry of foreigners and stricter controls on imports to combat them.
The country closed its borders and restricted its public activities, meaning that no local transmission has been detected for ten months. The first case of local transmission was recorded in May after a driver of international freight who had completed his 21-day quarantine and his wife tested positive.
From that day on, the country was strictly sealed off and a heightened level of preparation was achieved. Although the outbreak has decreased somewhat, the strict closures were gradually lifted on 19 December.
Faced with disruption to businesses' livelihoods, the government decided to exempt households and businesses from electricity, heating, water and waste charges. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Mongolia returned 21,000 citizens from 80 countries on charter flights, 80% from outside the country.
Parliament election in Mongolia
The citizens of Mongolia have elected their highest legislative body, exercising their constitutional right to vote for or against the Constitution. The election results give the Mongolian People's Party, which is currently in government, the opportunity to continue its policy. In concrete terms, this means that the ruling Mongolian People's Party won most of the seats, 11 of which were held by the Democratic Party. Two other parties - the Republican Party and the Social Democratic Party - also won seats as independent candidates.
Local elections were held in the capital Ulan Bator, the second-largest city in Mongolia and the third-largest in the country. As a result, the MPP won 34 of the 45 seats in the capital's parliament, becoming the majority in the parliament of 13 cities.
The National Labour Party also won three council seats for the first time, and the DP won 8 of the 8 seats in the capital.
Archaeologists discover ruins of the Khunnu empire capital
In June 2020, a team of archaeologists led by archaeologist T. Iderkhangai excavated the ruins of the Khunnu Imperial Capital, one of the most important ancient cities in Thailand. Based on these findings, the area has been announced as the site for a new archaeological site for the National Museum of Thai Archaeology (NMA).
The remains were discovered in June 2020 by a team of archaeologists led by T. Iderkhangai in the Khunnu Imperial Capital, one of Thailand's most important ancient cities. During the complex exploration and excavation work, artefacts were discovered that indicate the existence of a palace of ordinary dignity in the city of Luut, as the archaeologist T, IDerkhangsai, pointed out. The discovery of the ruins of this city in Luut was announced because it is impossible to decorate the palace with ordinary dignity without the character of the Son of Heaven, Xhanyu.
Mongolia’s development model - ‘Vision-2050
On 13 May 2020, the state of Great Khural adopted the "Vision 2050," a strategy paper defining the next 30 years of Mongolia's development. The document, developed over eight months by the Mongolian Joint Venture for Economic Development (MJV), a joint venture of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the State Council, includes more than 500 strategies based on the eight five-year plans developed since 1914 by Mongolian joint ventures and a number of regional and international partners.
In this sense, Vision 2050 is truly a Mongolian model of development, combining the modern ideology of development, which is pursued internationally, with Mongolian traditional values such as respect for human rights and the rule of law. Vision 2050 consists of 9 targets and 47 targets and is divided into carefully calculated delivery methods and expected outcomes for the government.
In the past, Mongolia's economy was largely dependent on mining, and the economy is still heavily dependent on mining, which generates the bulk of its income.
The situation is the same today, with changes in commodity prices and in mining having a direct impact. Knowledge economy and in the next 30 years of politics it was announced that the following sectors, areas and projects will be given priority within the economy and will be supported by public policy.
It is also planned that the country will become a producer and exporter, in order to reach a level at which Mongolia is fully competitive in the Asia-Pacific region. Such measures will boost GDP by 2.5% to 3% per year, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3%.
The strategic partnership strengthens between Mongolia and the U.S.
On December 7, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution reaffirming the US Strategic Partnership with Mongolia and the US commitment to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. The resolution underlines the importance of the implementation of the Comprehensive Economic and Security Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two countries in order to enhance cooperation in the field of peace, security and economic development.
It also calls for support for female entrepreneur-led SMEs, for boosting trade between Mongolia and the US, and for support for efforts to promote democracy in Mongolia, to fight corruption and to fight corruption.
Recalling the importance of civil society for the development of democracy, the EU also calls on Mongolia to continue to maintain a free, fair and trustworthy electoral system and to continue to implement legal reforms, build institutional capacity and strengthen its independence. Observers believe that the resolution will play an important role in the development of relations between the two countries and will serve as a basis for submitting a resolution to the US Congress supporting Mongolia's right to free and fair elections and the protection of human rights.
Mongolia removed from FATF Grey List
Mongolia has been officially removed from its grey list by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. This was announced by IMF Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in his annual report to the United Nations General Assembly on 23 October 2020.
Mongolia was added to the FATF's grey list in 2015 after failing to meet its obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The country was removed from the list after the government took concrete action. After taking into account the changes in the law enforcement authorities in Mongolia, the President and Prime Minister of the Mongolian People's Republic of Tunguskaq attended the General Assembly of the FatF and supported the removal of Mongolia from its list.
